Larissa Jensen, SVP and Global Beauty Industry Advisor at Circana10.09.24
U.S. consumer sentiment and intentions related to the 2024 holiday shopping season are improved compared to the last two years, but are still falling short of 2021 levels in most cases. Most holiday shoppers plan to spend about the same as last year. Still, there is an increase in those planning on spending more, according to the annual holiday purchase intentions consumer survey from Circana (2024 Holiday Shopping Intentions Fueled by Consumer Optimism and Quest for Value).
This upcoming holiday will test the resiliency of the beauty industry. In fact, beauty’s resilience has made our industry an anomaly of sorts; while other industries experienced ups followed by downs, beauty has just gone up, then up, and up again. How will this translate during the 2024 holiday season?
When looking across the mass and prestige sides of the business, the holiday period is more important to (and has a greater impact in) prestige beauty, which epitomizes the indulgence in little luxuries during the holiday season. For that reason, we look to the performance in prestige during the holiday as an indicator of where the consumer mindset is throughout the season with regard to our industry.
In prestige, the higher-income shopper has been a key driver to beauty industry success, but we have begun to see some pullback and softness in beauty spending among higher-income consumers earning between $100k to $150k annually. They are one of the larger consumer groups among high earners and have traditionally shown strong spending behavior.
Circana is forecasting a positive holiday season for the prestige beauty category. Growth will be softer than in years past, but the industry’s resilience should continue to shine through this holiday season.
This upcoming holiday will test the resiliency of the beauty industry. In fact, beauty’s resilience has made our industry an anomaly of sorts; while other industries experienced ups followed by downs, beauty has just gone up, then up, and up again. How will this translate during the 2024 holiday season?
When looking across the mass and prestige sides of the business, the holiday period is more important to (and has a greater impact in) prestige beauty, which epitomizes the indulgence in little luxuries during the holiday season. For that reason, we look to the performance in prestige during the holiday as an indicator of where the consumer mindset is throughout the season with regard to our industry.
Is Another Strong Season in Sight?
Since 2021, all prestige beauty categories have experienced strong growth during the holiday season. In 2024, there are many macro and micro factors at play that could impact whether the industry has another strong year. Some may impact sales negatively, others more positively.In prestige, the higher-income shopper has been a key driver to beauty industry success, but we have begun to see some pullback and softness in beauty spending among higher-income consumers earning between $100k to $150k annually. They are one of the larger consumer groups among high earners and have traditionally shown strong spending behavior.
Looking to Gen Alpha Market
We see surges in growth coming from high-income households with children under 18 years old, an indicator that parents are indulging their Gen Alpha children with prestige beauty products. Based on the social media virality of this new generation of beauty enthusiasts, this dynamic shows no sign of slowing down any time soon and could be a pivotal growth driver during the holiday.Circana is forecasting a positive holiday season for the prestige beauty category. Growth will be softer than in years past, but the industry’s resilience should continue to shine through this holiday season.
