Nancy Jeffries, Contributor03.01.23
Cosmetic Executive Women’s (CEW) held its annual event, "The State of the Beauty Industry" presentation on February 9, 2023.
The virtual CEW exclusive event provided attendees with reports from various research groups, to help inform and impact the way beauty brands develop and market their new and existing products.
Representatives of Iced Media, NielsenIQ, Mintel, the NPD Group, and Google and Spate all shared the latest market data and beauty trend information.
Here's a recap of the event. Read on.
Jill Scalamandre, CEO, Beekman 1802, and chairwoman, CEW, introduced the following speakers:
- Leslie Ann Hall, CEO and Founder, Iced Media
- Sarah Jindal, Senior Director, Beauty & Personal Care, Americas, Mintel
- Yarden Horwitz, Co-Founder, Spate
- Flynn Matthews, Head of Insights & Measurement, Global CPG, Google
- Tara James Taylor, SVP, Global Beauty Vertical Leader, NielsenIQ
- Larissa Jensen, Vice President, Beauty Industry Advisor, The NPD Group
CEW presents the Top Beauty Trends for 2023—and Beyond
The following companies have outlined the top trends—and helpful insights—designed to help beauty brands, beauty marketers, and beauty retailers better connect with beauty consumers.
The full report follows, according to:
- Iced Media
- Mintel
- Google + Spate
- Nielsen IQ
- The NPD Group
Iced Media Examines Social Trends
Leslie Ann Hall, CEO and founder, Iced Media, presented her organization’s methodology for benchmarking beauty rankings and trends, and provided insights into attracting consumers in 2023. She stressed a three-pronged platform, which included:- A Return to Retail
- Content that Converts
- Cashing in with Creators
Her findings indicated that creator content in paid social media is outperforming brand content—and having significant impact on shopping behavior.
Creators use their influence to digitally interact with consumers on various platforms, including TikTok, and are increasingly gaining traction in the social world.
Hall said, “Creator-led ads are outperforming brand ads by two to one.” Citing a meta survey in which beauty buyers were influenced by nano influencers almost as much as macro influencers, she urged brands to “Diversify your campaigns with content that converts. Don’t be afraid to reallocate your spend.”
Mintel Focuses on Beauty Rx, Evolved Self-Care & More
Sarah Jindal, senior director, Beauty & Personal Care, Americas, Mintel, examined three trends in beauty—Now, Next,and What’s Coming in the Future.
Her analysis focused on Beauty Rx, in which consumers seek validation or recommendations from doctors, to help them make informed choices, and Evolved Self-Care, which recognizes the impact of consumers seeking access and convenience to products with high performance. Consumers want to know that their money is well spent, and they are receiving streamlined, valuable, and transparent info.
Jindal noted a rise in professional influencers, doctors and dermatologists who support the ingredients and technology of a product. She said the future of personalization is strong and will continue to cater to individualized needs. Services, devices, and science are key, including new strides in bio-engineering, DNA sequencing, and advanced technology for developing new products. She acknowledged Arcaea, currently using DNA sequencing, fermentation, and bioengineering for its innovative beauty product development.
Tech Opportunities are Emerging
“The future holds emerging tech opportunities, which are now being explored around the microbiome, hormones, and health diagnostics,” said Jindal. She said increased receptivity to lab grown bio-identical ingredients, and holistic experiences are being leveraged in beauty, as consumers explore skin diagnostics, evolving robotic dental care, and other means of Evolved Self-Care. “Consumers are actively trying to reduce stress in their lives and beauty helps facilitate that journey,” said Jindal."Happening Now" is a movement for consumers to uplift themselves. She advised product developers to frame wellness messaging in positivity, identity, and representation. All consumers should feel seen and spoken to.
In her "What Happens Next" segment, Jindal stressed the growing importance of community, which continues to be key, post-pandemic. “The kindness movement will continue, with health and wellness of the collective moving to the forefront. Training employees to have honest conversations with clients, will also be important,” she said. She cited Korean brand, Vitalbeautie, by AmorePacific, for its holistic joining of traditional ingredients with the philosophy that real beauty is nurtured inside and expressed outside.
As an example of a future that caters to individual needs, Jindal noted the mind-linked Bathbots, by AmorePacific, which analyze brain waves to create customized, fragranced bath bombs. She said holistic habits, sleep, hormones, and products, will all tie into beauty.
“The new rules of engagement include pleasure, DIY, and fun, and what this means for consumers is that they will be interacting with beauty in engaging and experiential ways, including the metaverse,” she said. She cited clean, vegan, and cruelty-free fragrance brand, FOOPE, as an example of the new wave of products offering clean fragrance and scent trial at home; and also noted a rise in gaming and beauty, citing Benefit’s live-streaming, Game Face, which interacts with gamers who share their best beauty looks, urging them to “Get Your Game Face on with Benefit.”
Online and off-line will continue to merge, with digital and metaverse options opening up for customers’ interactive journeys.
“Bringing enjoyment back to beauty is critical,” she said, adding that AR will provide crossover experiences, online and off-line. Brands can create “phygital” experiences, combining the physical and digital worlds, that will change the way consumers engage with products. She cited Byredo and RTFKT’s merger to create a fragrance in the digital world; NARS launch of a color quest on Roblox in the digital space; Clinique’s launch of an NFT; and Dior teaming up with a South Korean group to create a beauty collective in an online world.
Google X Spate Presents 'The New Face of Beauty'
Flynn Matthews, head of Insights & Measurement, Global CPG, Google and Yarden Horwitz, co-founder, Spate, presented 2023 insights into the changing face of beauty. (One of their illustrations is the photo shown above).Matthews cited growth driven by fragrance, men’s care, and hair care categories, and trends around bronzing, glowing, and dewy skin. She said, water-based, as well as glowy and matte looks were strong, and scientific breakthroughs in skin and hair continue to trend in 2023.
Google + Spate's Top Beauty Brands— in order of increase in average monthly searches:
- La Roche Posay (+85.7K)
- Tatcha (+80.9K)
- Drunk Elephant (+65.5K)
- Elta MD (61.6K)
- Good Molecules (+44.7K)
Google + Spate Tracks Top Trending Brands
- “Skinification of hair care” continues to grow—and the top trending hair brands are Dyson, Drybar, Mielle, K18, and Nutrafol.
- Top trending makeup brands are Fenty, Charlotte Tilbury, Rare Beauty, Elf Cosmetics, and NARS.
- Top trending fragrance brands are Caroline Herrera, Valentino, Burberry, Scentbird, and Versace.
Consumers are leaving their homes, post-pandemic, and are seeking root perms, tubing mascara, cheek stain, lip stain, tinted sunscreen, wolf cut hair styles, and eyeliner stamps.
Convenience continues to be a factor, and stick application is growing, with highlighter sticks, sunscreen sticks, contouring and blush sticks.
In their three-category system, Expensive skin is a culmination of trends, showing a rise in treatments, such as laser, red light therapy, carbon laser peel, and ingredient focus, particularly on tretinoin.
“Science is winning in skin care,” said Horwitz, noting exfoliation, retinol, tretinoin, and acids growing in popularity; and hydration is second, with ceramides, glycerin, hyaluronic acid and snail mucin all continuing to grow.
There has been an awakened concentration on the face, noted Horwitz. “Face Forward, Hair Back,” is a strong trend, and hair wax sticks and slicked back hair are gaining traction as consumers want to lead with their face.
The new face of beauty in 2022 showed interest in a more serious, chiseled face, and looks were not as much about appearing younger.
In 2023, the Beautiful Awakening face shows that people don’t want to look the same.
“I don’t want to be pretty, I want to be iconic,” said Horwitz. Looks now range from crying faces, to space makeup, and to grunge. Celebrities are also shaking things up and impacting the way a new generation of consumers is thinking about beauty.Their three-tiered beauty saw Beautiful Awakening as a way to stand out and reflect inspiration, while Expensive Beauty is aligned with premium solutions and Passive Beauty is a reflection of a more mainstream audience seeking convenience.
They stressed that a non-recession-proof economy would largely determine the standing of each tier.
NielsenIQ's 2023 Global Trends
Tara James Taylor, SVP Global Beauty Vertical Leader, NielsenIQ, acknowledged consumer autonomy in the beauty marketplace.“I love that people are owning what they need and asking for it,” she said. “Beauty sales remain resilient, fragrance is strong, deodorant is growing, and the premiumization of the sun care category continues,” she said.
According to NielsenIQ, total beauty sales in the US reached $90.2 billion (up +6.7% from last year); and top beauty growth brands on Amazon, “a shining star in 2023,” were CeraVe, Dove, Gillette, L’Oréal, and Mighty Patch, by Hero Cosmetics, for their best-selling acne patch.
Taylor's 2023 trend predictions in beauty include a lip stain resurgency, liquid blush, plus ceramides and Azelaic Acid in ingredients. Splurging, as well as frugality, coexisted in the high/low category.
Key themes for 2023 include innovation and sustainable beauty, sexual wellness, men’s cosmetics, acne acceptance, and menopause and aging.
NielsenIQ's Key Themes:
- Consumers are looking for gyno-recommended products, and are dialed in for pro-aging and wellness, as Boomers re-define health and aging.
- Sustainability continues to impact packaging solutions, as brands re-think beauty packaging and refillable options.
- Clean ingredients is an evolving conversation. There is growth in healthy food ingredients, such as kale, entering the beauty product pantheon.
- Value-seeking consumers also impact the market, as 82% of beauty shoppers noticed beauty price increases.
- Celebrity brands continue to resonate, as does the rising influence of derms.
- Innovation, clean and sustainable, personalization, inclusivity, trusted spokespersons, and ingredient focus will continue to grow in 2023.
The top five brands on the rise, according to NielsenIQ, are:
- Il Makiage
- Lume Deodorant
- Megababe
- Saie
- Necesssaire
The NPD Group Sees Beauty’s Moment
Larissa Jensen, vice president, Beauty Industry Advisor, The NPD Group, said 2022 was an incredible year for beauty. Dollar performance in US showed prestige beauty across categories growing in units. She noted that the merging of NPD and IRi, has enabled a more complete picture of both the prestige and mass beauty markets.Jensen placed the mass beauty market at $66 billion and prestige beauty market at $27 billion. “While the prestige market is smaller, it has twice the rate of growth as the mass beauty market over the past two years,” she said.
Brick and mortar is experiencing declines in mass, but in prestige, it’s a driver of growth. Jensen explained that while prestige is dominated by brick and mortar, more and more brands are straddling both markets.
Mass showed unit declines and price increases outpacing prestige. “Consumers have indulged in prestige beauty and shopping frequency changes have occurred,” she said, adding, “Most prestige retailers are seeing increases in purchase frequency; however, in mass beauty, shoppers are shopping less frequently and also paying more.”
The higher income consumer drives the prestige beauty market and is spending two times more than she did pre-pandemic. Loyalty continues to be a factor in prestige, however, sales have brought in new customers. She discussed the importance of promotions in beauty, particularly in fragrance; and noted that while, “Promotional levels in prestige beauty have slowed, purchase levels remain strong,” she said.
“In mass, the best way to reach consumers is knowing where they buy. Mass consumers are also sophisticated and digitally savvy, and it’s important to target shoppers both in prestige and mass, as the wall between the two has been tumbling down,” said Jensen.
Prestige categories accounted for 13 of the top 20-dollar growth segments, with facial skin care in mass contributing +20% growth. Jensen said that today’s consumer is treating herself with small indulgences, the Lipstick Index is alive and well, and consumers look for confidence and joy in beauty, particularly as economic sentiment moves in a negative direction. She said, “The treat mindset and wellness remain key to growth.”
Fragrance for the inner self is growing, and consumers are choosing scent as a form of self-care, as mental wellness remains strong, and beauty continues to be an important tie-in to luxury. From premium fragrance to luxury hair tools and coffee machines, luxury is key. Jensen said the luxury buyer spent $2.4 billion last year on prestige beauty; and luxury is experiencing a democratization across facial skin care.
Jensen noted brand opportunities for future growth, saying clean beauty products were found to be more highly rated by consumers than other products, with vegan, natural, organic, and cruelty-free at the forefront.
Natural brand performance in the prestige market is outpacing natural brand performance in mass by +17%; consumers increasingly value sustainability and social responsibility initiatives; and Black-founded brands, particularly in east coast markets continue to grow. “Prestige beauty growth remains strong and will continue even as inflation continues. The outlook for complete beauty is positive, with 70% reporting they are not cutting back on beauty. We are an industry steeped in emotion,” she said.
Contrasting prestige and mass in her presentation, Jensen noted double-digit growth in prestige beauty across all regions (except China), and strong mass market performance, however less than prestige. The strongest performance was in Latin America, in both prestige and mass. Holiday prestige outpaced mass with record beauty sales, with fragrance accounting for half of that growth.
Top launches in dollar volume sales were as follows:
- Hair Care Prestige: Olaplex No. 9 Bond Protector Nourishing Hair Serum
- Hair Care Mass: Head & Shoulders 2-in-1 Dry Scalp Care Shampoo
- Skincare Prestige: The Ordinary – Multi-Peptide Lash & Brow Serum
- Skincare Mass: Olay Niacinamide + Peptide2 Hydrating Moisturizer
- Makeup Prestige: NARS Light Reflecting Foundation
- Makeup Mass: L’Oréal Paris Infallible Eyeliner Pen Black
- Fragrance Prestige: Prada Paradoxe
- Fragrance Mass: Old Spice Deep Sea Body Fragrance
Looking Ahead—Navigating an Uncertain Market
In looking ahead to the future of the beauty industry, Jensen observed:“We feel it’s going to be a positive year in dollars for prestige and anticipate something similar in mass, but it remains to be seen depending on changes that may take place.”
In closing, Jensen shared four key traits to navigate uncertainty in the beauty market— be thoughtful, innovative, agile, and dependable.
