Look Forward with Anticipation

Change is a word that can fill us with trepidation. Change is also a word that can and, in this case, should fill us with anticipation—two sides, one coin. Of course, while we talk of change, let’s first be clear on one fact. What does not change in 2014 is the strength of beauty as a category of choice. Despite the uncertainties of our economy and wavering consumer confidence, beauty prevailed and was positive. Now, 2013 is behind us. It was a dynamic year. It was also a year that gave us the early glimpses of the changes ahead and the emergence of key trends most likely to take stronger footing in the coming year.

For 2014, on the topline, don’t be alarmed at first glance by the performance results. The extra week of sales in January 2013 will make the comparisons for 2014 appear weaker than they actually are. The outlook for the year is positive though with tempered results from the robust trends of 2011 and 2012. Across the categories and channels, greatest prowess is again expected from skin care and makeup. Fragrance, which sparked and, at times, sputtered in 2013, is expected to remain steady. Premium priced beauty, which has been the leading area of industry growth for several years, particularly in skin care and fragrance, is expected to again outpace the overall market at both the opening premium and super-premium price ranges.

Across categories, we expect to see an expansion from 2013 of new product types and formats emerging.

• In skin care, products offering immediacy of results in appearance—texture, tone, and complexion—share the stage previously dominated almost exclusively by anti-aging serums. Smaller segments in facial care as well as higher specialization in hair care, body and sun emerge from the shadows.

• In makeup, enhancing instead of full coverage products are the star vehicles. Look for eye definition products for brows and lashes as well as radiant primers and color correctors that allow less foundation usage yet flawless appearance. And, lips replace nail color as the playground favorite with bold colors ranging from brights to neons to blues.

• In fragrance, the story is one of opposites. Smaller sizes and large, colognes for women and eau de parfums for men, newer woody notes are bracketed by a return of more traditional florals and aromatic fougere, classic iconic brands share the spotlight with exclusives and artisanal brands.
Can you already feel the dynamism of beauty in 2014? The change we expect will be rich with opportunities and, of course, the requisite challenges. While elements of beauty will be changing, we stand firmly in the knowledge that our footing, beauty, is still solid. As we embrace change, we do more than meet the needs and evolving preferences of our consumers, we also excite the imagination, ignite the senses and ultimately, ensure our success.

About the Author

Karen Grant is vice president and global beauty industry analyst for The NPD Group—and a member of Beauty Packaging’s Board of Advisors. In her role at NPD, she provides a comprehensive view of the market—coupling expertise on brand management with the strategic insights of market research. Regarded as the beauty industry expert, Grant’s concentration is on uncovering emerging market trends, brand vulnerabilities, and opportunities. Her expertise is in providing market insights and evaluating new and missed client opportunities and competitive threats. She provides ongoing consultation to the leading retailers and beauty manufacturers, as well as top financial institutions.